So tonight after Iowans have spoken in the nomination process, we now see that Donald Trump is not inevitable. He came in seconded for the Republican nomination with Ted Cruz winning the caucus and Marco Rubeo nipping at Trump’s heals for a very good showing for third place. We still have a long road to the eventual nominee and Trump may still win it, but he has now taken a big hit to his armor. We also now will see basically a three-man race between Cruz, Trump, and Rubio.
Trump did not have to win Iowa like Cruz needed to, but if he had won it, include that with his popularity and the anti-establishment mentality of the voters; he would’ve been for the most part unstoppable. Ted Cruz was able to win in Iowa despite the fact that polls showed him declining and Trump way ahead. Then there is the fact that Marco Rubio was really giving Trump a fight for second place. Just look at the results, Cruz with 51,666/27.6%, Trump with 45,427/24.3%, and Rubio at 43,165/23.1%; all of this out of a total of 186,874 votes. As can be seen Trump just barely got and held second place.
One thing these results show is that while the Iowa caucus did indeed being a big turnout like it was predicted, that turn out did not benefit Trump. It was not Trump that brought in the voters, but all three together. The turnout and the results of the Iowa caucus are very troubling for Trump because for the first time we see that his high poll ratings and huge rallies will not actually translate to election results.
Now we will see just how Trump does in New Hampshire, where again he has been polling very high. If Trump does not win in New Hampshire, then I think we will start to see the “sharks” really pounce on him; that is when Trump will start to fall. With Iowa, we saw that he could fall, with New Hampshire, we will see if he falls. Another thing that Iowa did with regards to Trump was to provide another strong possible alternative to him besides Cruz. I am speaking of course, of Rubio. Unlike Cruz however, Rubio doesn’t just have support from the conservatives of the Republican party, but by moderates and the establishment as well.
If Rubio remains strong, we could begin to see a coalescing around him, to stop Trump and be the nominee for President. Yes, no matter how one looks at it, Iowa was not good for Trump not good at all. Trump now knows just how important it is to have a very good ground game, not just holding big rallies and being popular in the polls with lots of media coverage. If one does not have the grass-roots ground game, one cannot win the Republican nomination, let alone the general election for President of the United States.